AI has stopped carrying the market. The S&P 500 ex-AI Index is now marginally outperforming the full index S&P 500 in 2026. The boom isn’t over, but as capex overwhelms cash flow, investors are finally asking the crucial question: Where are the returns?

 

Good Morning from Germany, where the old growth model is fading faster than the new one is emerging. Autos, chemicals and machinery remain 15–20% below their pre-Covid peaks, while Goldman Sachs sees IT services (+0.25pp annual growth), defence (+0.1pp) and electrification as… pic.twitter.com/mxVz1VUatA

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) July 27, 2026